The Jewish War: Book 3

[cahn]

Last week: The Jews are basically in an abusive relationship with Rome and have no good options; they choose the particular bad option of picking a war with Rome that they can't win. The Romans are terrible. Also continuing discussion here about Britannicus, Messalina, and the Praetorians.

This week: Vespasian comes down like a ton of bricks. That whole !!!! part of Josephus happens, where he gets stuck in the cave with a bunch of others and invents and wins the Josephus problem (well, in the text it says they draw lots, so he doesn't actually really cite what developed into the problem) (*) and surrenders to the Romans once he and another guy are the only ones left, and prophesies to Vespasian that he will become emperor. (selenak: Is it Feuchtwanger's invention to add the nomenclature of Messiah in there too? That definitely... upped the ante.)

(I'll comment more on this tomorrow -- I got done with the reading late and obviously barely got this written.)

Next week: first part of book 4, to "Despite the Zealotes didn't exactly behave as if they disbelieved the prophecies, they themselves contributed to their fulfillment" (Josephus describing the Zealotes as the worst!) (388)

(*) E. wanted to know what I was reading, so I told her about the Josephus problem, and she said, "Real-world applications of math!"

Comments

[cenozoicsynapsid]

We can see here the hollowness of Josephus's claims to have trained his field army in the Roman manner (2.577); when push comes to shove, his army is brave, but lacks either the equipment or the discipline to face the Romans in open battle. They are predominantly fast missile troops, capable of outrunning legionaries but not of actually fighting them. selenak said earlier that it would have been possible for Herod and his heirs to obtain Roman-style equipment (and I agreed with this). Clearly he didn't actually do this, or at least did it only for the royal troops most immediately under the king's direct command.

It is pretty crazy that Josephus immediately prophecies that Vespasian will be emperor, which as was mentioned, is totally unprecedented. This suggests to me that it's not necessarily true, actually. Perhaps he said something vaguer, which during the year of the four emperors was retrospectively reinterpreted this way by both of them. The prophecy itself is delivered in private (for obvious reasons)--- just Vespasian and Titus, plus "two of his closest associates", who are probably his long-time army comrades as well as clients. It would make sense that the historian repeats (as usual) what should have been said, not what was actually said.

In any case, the setup also suggests that Vespasian knows a fair amount about Jews--- that they are reputedly prophets, and especially the priests. Perhaps he even knows the story of Joseph and Pharaoh? I wonder if this is something he has learned during the campaign (as opposition research) or maybe it was just common knowledge anywhere with a Jewish diaspora.

I have been to the Galilee and can confirm that it is pleasant, fertile and well-watered, and stays cool in summer compared to the Judean desert. It's cute that we get a digression on the fish. (They are a distinctively stripy tilapia--- now known as St. Peter's fish--- and the water is indeed clear enough to see them swimming around. I haven't been to Egypt, but the Nile does notoriously also have tilapia of some species. I am not sure how closely related they are.)

[cahn]

We can see here the hollowness of Josephus's claims to have trained his field army in the Roman manner (2.577); when push comes to shove, his army is brave, but lacks either the equipment or the discipline to face the Romans in open battle

Ohhhh this is an interesting inference, I didn't pick up on that, but yeah that makes sense.

This suggests to me that it's not necessarily true, actually. Perhaps he said something vaguer, which during the year of the four emperors was retrospectively reinterpreted this way by both of them. The prophecy itself is delivered in private (for obvious reasons)--- just Vespasian and Titus, plus "two of his closest associates", who are probably his long-time army comrades as well as clients. It would make sense that the historian repeats (as usual) what should have been said, not what was actually said.

Ooh. I guess the story is so interestingly dramatic that this didn't even really occur to me. (I am a drama-loving person, okay.) But I guess that probably is the most logical conclusion!

That is really cool that you can confirm Josephus' descriptions, two thousand years later. And the fish!

[selenak]

This suggests to me that it's not necessarily true, actually. Perhaps he said something vaguer, which during the year of the four emperors was retrospectively reinterpreted this way by both of them.

He must have said something, though. (Given Suetonius writes later than Josephus, I'm not sure whether he counts as an independent source, but: as Hadrian's secretary he had access to the Imperial archives, and presumably also to the papers of Hadrian's family; my translation points out the Trajan who is mentioned by Josephus in Book 3 as part of Vespasian's entourage is the father of the Trajan, cousin to Hadrian, who later becomes Emperor himself. Suetonius is generally hostile towards Jews in "Twelve Caesars", and so I'm not sure he would have given Josephus credit for making an accurate prophecy about Vespasian if Josephus were the only source for that claim.) I somehow can't see Vespasian being impressed by a vague "great things are coming your way, oh commander!", it had to be something more unusual than that because I'm sure Vespasian would have heard vague prophecies from other people as well.

Otoh: if the term "Emperor" was used, then it would have immediately been insanely risky for Vespasian. If word gets out to Nero, it just takes one order and he's dead. Speculation: maybe Josephus said something like "you are the chosen one, you will be elevated about all others within a year" and it was the accuracy of the timing that impressed Vespasian post facto. Or, in a chicken and egg kind of way: maybe whatever Josephus said helped inspiring Vespasian to throw his toga into the ring once it was clear there was a genuine chance here after Nero's immediate successor was quickly dispatched with.

Could Vespasian have learned about Joseph and Pharao before meeting Josephus via opposition research: I guess. Not least because Rome really did have a sizable Jewish community. And Poppea, Nero's second wife (already dead at this point), had according to Josephus in "Jewish Antiquities" a great interest in Jewish customs and religion and was seen by the Jews as their patron. (BTW since Josephus writes this well after Nero's death when Nero's memory was damned, i.e. when positive things about Poppea didn't gain him anything, I assume it's true.) If Poppea could study Judaism, there were teachers available who also could have briefed Vespasian even before he came to Judea and the Galilee.

[cenozoicsynapsid]

"Speculation: maybe Josephus said something like "you are the chosen one, you will be elevated about all others within a year" and it was the accuracy of the timing that impressed Vespasian post facto."

Yes, this is the kind of thing I imagined. It fits with our impression of J's technique so far--- as with Vespasian's military record, or his own reputation as a general, he does not lie outright but he does exaggerate.

And it fits with his strategic behavior. As you also say, "if the term "Emperor" was used, then it would have immediately been insanely risky for Vespasian", and it seems very unlikely that J would have chosen to flatter the guy who was going to decide whether or not to execute him in terms that would put V's own life in danger in that way.

What Josephus tells Vespasian - The Feuchtwanger version

[selenak]

cahn and I keep referring to a novel you likely haven't read, so here's Lion Feuchtwanger's rendition of Josephus prophecy and how he comes up with it:

"What do you say, young man?" (Vespasian) asked jovially. "Should I set out for Jerusalem straight away? I have a great desire to see your great Sabbath service in the Temple. But you've held me up so long in this Jotapat of yours. It's quite late in the year now. And if the people in Jerusalem are as stiff necked as you fellows here it'll be a long winded business."
He spoke casually and jestingly. 'But Joseph saw that the eyes in the broad, hard-lined peasant face were clear and watchful; he heard the man's loud breathing; then suddenly, in a blinding flash, he saw that in his secret heart this Roman did not want to march on Jerusalem; that he had no desire for a quick victory over Judea. Vespasian did not look as if he would give up in a hurry whatever he held. He wanted to keep his army, his three superb legions hwich worked so well together, and once the campaign was finished he would be deprived of them as a matter of course, and his command would be at an end. Joseph saw clearly that this man Vespasian did not want to march at present on Jerusalem.
The knowledge gave him new strangth. His agitations in the cave were still working within him. Heknew that now at last he would have to fight for his life, and in that fight the knowledge that the Roman had no desire to reach Jeruslaem gave him a tremendous advantage. Softly, but with burning conviction, he said: "I tell you this, General Vespasian. You will not march on Jerusalem this year. Probably not next year, either.'"
He saw Vespasian before him, strong and clear-eyed, a man. Gazing intently at him, Joseph proceeded slowly, as if he were digging the words out of himself: "You are destined for greater things."
(...) Vespasian's eyes narrowed as he stared at his prisoner. "Think of that," he said chaffingly, "so it seems the prophets have not died out in Judaea after all." But the raillery in his rough old voice was qu8ite mild; it breathed encouragement and good nature. (....)
Meanwhile JOseph madly racked his brains. His words had hit the mark; but what could he saw now to deepen the impression he made upon this man? The Roman stood there, a burly peasant, and waited. Joseph serached every corner of his memory. Claudius Reginus, JOhn of Gishala, "God is in Italy now." Where could he find a bone to fling to his man who heldl his life in his hands? (...)Joseph kneew that everything depended on his answer; he was fighting for his life. He summoned all his strength and gave the answer: "There are not many prophets in Judaea," he said, "and their sayings are dark. They have foretold that the Messiah will go out from Judaea. We misunderstood them and started this war. Now that I stand before you, Consul Vespasian, in your tent, I knoew the rihgt interpretation." He bowed to the Roman in profound reverence. "The Messiah will go out from Judaea, but he will not be a Jew. You are he, Consul Vespasian."
At this brazen fantastic lie everybody in the tent became silent. They had heard of the Messiah; the whole Oirent was full of talk about him. The Messaih: that was the demi-god of whom this part of the earth dreamed. (...)
With his clear, sly peasant eyes Vespasian stared into JOseph's, which were now filled with reverence. Joseph supported his stare for a long time. He was sweating, although in the tent it was not really hot; the fetters hurt his legs, his lcohtes chafed his skin. But he supported Vespasian's stare. Heknew that this was the decisive moment. Perhaps the Roman would sijmply turn away, angered or even disgusted, an dorder him to be conducted to the cross or to a slave ship sailing to Rome. But it was possible also that Vespasian might believe him. He must. In his heart, whlie he waited for the answer, he prayed feverishly: "God, make this Roman believe me. If you will not do it for my sake, do it for the sake of your Temple. For if the Roman believes, hif he does not march this year on Jeruslalem, then perhaps your city and your Temple may be saved before next year comes. Oh God, you must make the Roman believe, you must, you must!" So he stood there praying, in fear of his life, supporting the Roman's gaze, awaiting in tense agitation the Roman's answer.
The Roman simply said: "Well, well, well. Not so fast, young man."

Re: What Josephus tells Vespasian - The Feuchtwanger version

[cenozoicsynapsid]

Thanks!

Re: What Josephus tells Vespasian - The Feuchtwanger version

[cahn]

Well, I mean, I guess this is indeed a way to talk to Vespasian that doesn't use the E-word but that Vespasian might understand as such...

Re: What Josephus tells Vespasian - The Feuchtwanger version

[selenak]

True, though I bet if Nero had heard about it, he’d have thought, hey, if anyone is the Messiah, whatever the Messiah is, I AM! And due to Poppea’s interest in Judaism, he might have actually heard about the Messiah beforehand. Then again, if Nero didn’t kill Vespasian for falling asleep during a concert of his, he clearly likes the old fellow. :)

What I cut from Feuchtwanger’s rendition of the scene is the part where once having said it, Joseph starts to rationalize it to himself and thinks, why not, MAYBE he really is the Messiah, he could be the Messiah, do we know he’s not the Messiah? Etc. The whole scene from Joseph correctly guessing Vespasian doesn’t want to win this year and give up his shiny command and legions and working from there to the Messiah prophecy to the rationalisation to Vespasian asking, only half joking, “so, when can I expect my Messiah-dom” and Joseph’s reply which is a longer version of “I can’t give you an exact date but if it takes too long, feel free to kill me, whereas I am sure it won’t take that long and that you yourself will take these chains from me” just feels so compellingly written and psychologically plausible to me that it’s my inner headcanon. While I acknowledge it’s a fictionalisation and he might just as well have said something else.

BTW, when I typed it with lots of typoes, it registred that Feuchtwanger’s translators made a pretty awkward mistake with all the “he supported Vespasian’s gaze”. The German word Feuchtwanger uses is “ertrug”, past tense of “ertragen”. Which I would translate with “he endured Vespasian’s gaze” etc. “Tragen” = “carry, support”, but “ertragen” = “endure”.

Re: What Josephus tells Vespasian - The Feuchtwanger version

[cahn]

Joseph starts to rationalize it to himself and thinks, why not, MAYBE he really is the Messiah, he could be the Messiah, do we know he’s not the Messiah?

Yeah, I remember this now that you're reminding me. Gosh, yes, so psychologically plausible, like you say.