The Jewish War: Book 3

[cahn]

Last week: The Jews are basically in an abusive relationship with Rome and have no good options; they choose the particular bad option of picking a war with Rome that they can't win. The Romans are terrible. Also continuing discussion here about Britannicus, Messalina, and the Praetorians.

This week: Vespasian comes down like a ton of bricks. That whole !!!! part of Josephus happens, where he gets stuck in the cave with a bunch of others and invents and wins the Josephus problem (well, in the text it says they draw lots, so he doesn't actually really cite what developed into the problem) (*) and surrenders to the Romans once he and another guy are the only ones left, and prophesies to Vespasian that he will become emperor. (selenak: Is it Feuchtwanger's invention to add the nomenclature of Messiah in there too? That definitely... upped the ante.)

(I'll comment more on this tomorrow -- I got done with the reading late and obviously barely got this written.)

Next week: first part of book 4, to "Despite the Zealotes didn't exactly behave as if they disbelieved the prophecies, they themselves contributed to their fulfillment" (Josephus describing the Zealotes as the worst!) (388)

(*) E. wanted to know what I was reading, so I told her about the Josephus problem, and she said, "Real-world applications of math!"

Comments

[selenak]

This suggests to me that it's not necessarily true, actually. Perhaps he said something vaguer, which during the year of the four emperors was retrospectively reinterpreted this way by both of them.

He must have said something, though. (Given Suetonius writes later than Josephus, I'm not sure whether he counts as an independent source, but: as Hadrian's secretary he had access to the Imperial archives, and presumably also to the papers of Hadrian's family; my translation points out the Trajan who is mentioned by Josephus in Book 3 as part of Vespasian's entourage is the father of the Trajan, cousin to Hadrian, who later becomes Emperor himself. Suetonius is generally hostile towards Jews in "Twelve Caesars", and so I'm not sure he would have given Josephus credit for making an accurate prophecy about Vespasian if Josephus were the only source for that claim.) I somehow can't see Vespasian being impressed by a vague "great things are coming your way, oh commander!", it had to be something more unusual than that because I'm sure Vespasian would have heard vague prophecies from other people as well.

Otoh: if the term "Emperor" was used, then it would have immediately been insanely risky for Vespasian. If word gets out to Nero, it just takes one order and he's dead. Speculation: maybe Josephus said something like "you are the chosen one, you will be elevated about all others within a year" and it was the accuracy of the timing that impressed Vespasian post facto. Or, in a chicken and egg kind of way: maybe whatever Josephus said helped inspiring Vespasian to throw his toga into the ring once it was clear there was a genuine chance here after Nero's immediate successor was quickly dispatched with.

Could Vespasian have learned about Joseph and Pharao before meeting Josephus via opposition research: I guess. Not least because Rome really did have a sizable Jewish community. And Poppea, Nero's second wife (already dead at this point), had according to Josephus in "Jewish Antiquities" a great interest in Jewish customs and religion and was seen by the Jews as their patron. (BTW since Josephus writes this well after Nero's death when Nero's memory was damned, i.e. when positive things about Poppea didn't gain him anything, I assume it's true.) If Poppea could study Judaism, there were teachers available who also could have briefed Vespasian even before he came to Judea and the Galilee.

[cenozoicsynapsid]

"Speculation: maybe Josephus said something like "you are the chosen one, you will be elevated about all others within a year" and it was the accuracy of the timing that impressed Vespasian post facto."

Yes, this is the kind of thing I imagined. It fits with our impression of J's technique so far--- as with Vespasian's military record, or his own reputation as a general, he does not lie outright but he does exaggerate.

And it fits with his strategic behavior. As you also say, "if the term "Emperor" was used, then it would have immediately been insanely risky for Vespasian", and it seems very unlikely that J would have chosen to flatter the guy who was going to decide whether or not to execute him in terms that would put V's own life in danger in that way.