18th-Century Characters, Including Frederick the Great, Discussion Post 33

[cahn]

And, I mean, it doesn't have to be just 18th century characters, either!

(also, waiting for Yuletide!)

Comments

Re: 1730 AU

[selenak]

Re: who wants Fritz to do what? - what about SD? Because never mind English marriages, she definitely wants her oldest to be King one day! Her entire life’s justification is going to be Wlihelmine as Queen of England and Fritz as King of Prussia with a Hannover wife, that’s why she put up with FW for years and years and years, and now she’s not going to get either?

…You know, this is perhaps the single AU scenario I can see where SD brings on the full force of maternal dsapproval on Fritz the way only her daughters experienced in real life, and then some, if he stays a private citizen. Yes, in real life her response to his escape is to plead for him. But that’s when her boy is captured with his life in the balance, and also he wanted to go to England and marry there and these are all things she’s into. In your scenario, at first she might be relieved that Fritz is safely out of FW’s reach, but then? Exposed to FW’s temper and blame? And once she learns Fritz resigns from being Crown Prince instead of intending to return in glory once FW kicks it? Meaning in terms of marital warfare, FW wins - his fave becomes King, her fave has deserted her and is a private citizen, and Wilhelmine doesn’t marry anyone? And there is no hope for her?

Oh boy. At the very least, Fritz is going to get a “you are no longer a son of mine if you do this” letter he won’t be able to pretend FW has dictated. (Because it’s in perfect French.)

As to who wants Fritz to stay in France: given the French were harboring Stuarts and other Jacobits and using them to distract or annoy the Brits through the decades, shouldn’t it occur to someone that having a Prussian ex Crown Prince who might have resigned but can potentially reactivate that claim (high, Bourbon Philip of Spain) to threaten with could come in handy. Especially since all that cultivation Rothembourg did before is now potentially in vain in terms of its practical use for France. (Sure, we know from RL that Fritz would not have been grateful ot the nation as opposed to the individual anyway, but that’s with hindsight.) They now have an incensed FW (with a big army and a big treasury) and an eight years old kid who has to be cultivated all over again and won’t be able to rule for another decade at least. And whom FW isn’t likely to let NEAR anyone French if France continues to harbor his wretched oldest. So from a French politician perspective, what does France get out of letting Fritz stay, if it’s not the potential weapon?

Meanwhile, I could see Team Habsburg actually on board with this outcome. FW fixating all his angry energies on France (with some to spare for his Hannover cousins out of general principle and because he’s sure they have SOMETHING to do with this) should not be a problem for Charles. FW’s oldest son, about whom Seckendorff is sending, shall we say, mixed reports (on a general note of “FW is too tough on him, but that boy has a rotten character”, taking himself out of the game? Also not a problem. AW’s a nice kid eager to do people favors. Sounds promising! (They don’t know about the four years old Fritzian other self in the nursery with AW, of course.) So I wouldn’t be surprised if Austria is quietly supportive of Fritz staying in France (quietly because they don’t want FW to withdraw his signature from the Pragmatic Sanction).

Re: 1730 AU

[mildred_of_midgard]

Re: who wants Fritz to do what? - what about SD?

I'm assuming that for the first part of this, she's locked up where sun and moon don't shine under house arrest, but you're right, if word gets out that Fritz is renouncing his claims, FW will let her write that letter.

Oh boy. At the very least, Fritz is going to get a “you are no longer a son of mine if you do this” letter he won’t be able to pretend FW has dictated. (Because it’s in perfect French.)

Alas. OTOH, this totally means that in 1740, I can see her going, "But you did that under duress! Come back and be king!"

shouldn’t it occur to someone that having a Prussian ex Crown Prince who might have resigned but can potentially reactivate that claim (high, Bourbon Philip of Spain) to threaten with could come in handy.

Yep, exactly! The French have also been harboring Stanislas (and recently marrying their king to his daughter), who doesn't have a throne any more, but they're about to try to put him back on it.

I think my main dilemma here is what happens initially: does Fritz stay in Alsace while he waits for Katte, or does he go to Paris, and if he stays or goes, how much of it is his idea vs. how much of it is external pressure, and who is pressuring him to do what?

Let's start with what we know. First, we know Chauvelin wants a war. So on the one hand, Chauvelin might want Fritz to come to Paris immediately and be used as a pawn. And we know Rottembourg is hand-in-glove with Chauvelin. But on the other hand, as you pointed out, Hoym refusing Fritz's attempt to escape might have been because Chauvelin had vetoed the idea. Wanting war is not the same thing as wanting a particular war. But on the third hand, discouraging Fritz from coming is not the same thing as throwing him away as a bargaining tool once you have him.

Second, we know Fleury doesn't want war. So does he want Fritz to keep a low incognito profile in Alsace, at least until Fleury can get some allies to support him? The diplomatic scene is changing quickly between when Fritz shows up (June 1730) and when Katte, Peter, and Wilhelmine show up (~March 1731?). In the first case, France and Britain are still kinda-sorta allies who are looking around for alternatives; in the second case, Britain has found that alternative (Austria), France is furious, and France is diplomatically isolated (since Spain at this point is allied with Britain and Austria).

Maybe the diplomatic isolation in March 1731 is why Fleury succeeds in averting a War of the Prussian Succession. Maybe he would rather keep Fritz in France than have him go to Uncle George and start a war that France could get sucked into, and possibly end up with a Prussian king that's grateful to Britain for putting him on the throne. And then he keeps sweetening the pot to entice Fritz to stay and be a quiet countryside scholar.

But alternatively, if I were in his shoes, or if I were another minister, I might want Fritz to go to Uncle George, because that would start a war that could break up the Britain-Austria-Prussia-Spain coalition. If France could stay neutral in that war, Fritz could be a useful pawn.

So I kind of like these as our three factions: go to war over Fritz, let the British go to war over Fritz (and take advantage of the fallout), or keep everything quiet. With Fleury winning as the "keep everything quiet" guy, because not only is he the most powerful man, but France is diplomatically isolated. (Being the most powerful doesn't mean he always wins, see 1733 and 1740. But 1731 is a good time for him to win, as indeed he did historically.)

That leaves Rottembourg. What does he do when he finds out a crown prince is hiding out at his estate? I was having him keep Fritz there in order to keep him from going to England, but for a number of reasons, he probably wants to take him to Paris: not get in trouble for harboring runaways, get credit for bringing the runaway (although that's a gamble, you can always end up as the scapegoat), support Chauvelin.

Maybe he's getting conflicting orders: official ones from Fleury to buy Fritz books, secretly hire the recently exiled Duhan, whatever it takes to keep Fritz happy and quiet and non-war-starting in Alsace, and secret ones from his encrypted correspondence with Chauvelin ordering him to bring Fritz to Paris so France can start a war.

But Fritz's plan was never to go to Paris, where the French will have the opportunity to keep him from going to England. So the more Rottembourg hints at Paris, the more Fritz digs in his heels and stubbornly stays in Alsace waiting for Katte to show up (quietly, so as not to provoke FW into making things worse for the hostages, SD and Wilhelmine). Katte, meanwhile, knows that Fritz never planned to go to Paris and was reluctant to even try Rottembourg's estate, and so when he's finally able to travel again, he assumes that enough time has passed that the reasonable place to meet up with Fritz is in England.

By the time Katte, Keith, and Wilhelmine all reunite with Fritz in spring of 1731,

1) France is diplomatically isolated and Fleury wins, because no one wants to go to war alone,

2) Fritz has gotten a taste of country scholar life and decided he likes it.

3) Most of his favorite people are with him, so what is the point of risking going back to a place where FW might get power over him again?

4) Fleury is doing everything in his power to sweeten the pot of "keep Fritz happy and quiet in France," like letting him become heir to a large fortune and keep his courtesy title and princely status.

5) Chauvelin is on board with this for now, because they can always use Fritz as a game piece to start a war later, as soon as they have allies again (and Chauvelin and Fleury are, as historically, working the Spanish connection as hard as they can in hopes of getting an alliance, which they do in 1733, just in time for the War of the Polish Succession).

And alas, I think this results in the letter from SD. But actually, maybe she doesn't write it, because she's holding out hope for Fritz to come back as soon as FW kicks it. The examples of Philip V, Victor Amadeus, and the Jacobites can give her hope. Meanwhile, both Fritz and Wilhelmine are totally getting letters that read DON'T MARRY ANYONE IN FRANCE.

Also, I realized Wilhelmine's priorities are going to be: "I don't care if you're king of Prussia or England or China or nowhere, but make sure that your courtesy title entitles us to sit in armchairs in the king and queen's presence!" :P

So from a French politician perspective, what does France get out of letting Fritz stay, if it’s not the potential weapon?

France definitely *wants* to put Fritz on the throne in return for him revoking Prussia's endorsement of the Pragmatic Sanction. How much effort they will put into this at what time is the question. I assume when FW dies, Belle-Isle will want to go to war to put Fritz on the throne. Maybe Prussia sides with Austria in the War of the Austrian Succession (l'autre moi-meme being only 14), in return for Jülich and Berg, against a France that wants Austrian territory and a Prussian king who's been living in France for the last ten years and owes his throne to them.

So I wouldn’t be surprised if Austria is quietly supportive of Fritz staying in France (quietly because they don’t want FW to withdraw his signature from the Pragmatic Sanction).

At some point, I think that events evolve such that Fritz is *willing* to give up his place in the succession, FW gets on board with this and making his favorite son his heir. At which point the Austrians can get involved openly, especially as the Emperor (iirc) has to approve any changes of inheritance. But first there has to be a lot of saber-rattling and perhaps actual skirmishing with Hanover and/or France by a raging FW.

Thank you, this was useful for thinking out loud (as it were) purposes! I still need to work out some details of what Rottembourg wants and does, but I have a clearer set of constraints now, and I'm liking the Fleury and Chauvelin developments.

La Chétardie's instructions

[mildred_of_midgard]

(Sure, we know from RL that Fritz would not have been grateful ot the nation as opposed to the individual anyway, but that’s with hindsight.)

This reminds me of something I read for my 1730 snapshot project, namey the instructions to French envoy La Chétardie to the Prussian court in 1732.

First, La Chétardie is instructed to hide the fact that he's an envoy and to pretend to be a simple traveler. For this reason, he's to make decoy trips to England and Holland first, so that when he arrives in Prussia, it looks Super Casual.

I'm not entirely sure why, but it seems to have something to do with the fact that Seckendorff has influence over FW amounting to mind control, and he and/or FW will be immediately resistant to a French envoy. Whereas if La Chétardie is a super-casual traveling private citizen, he has a better chance of getting on the good side of an unsuspecting FW. That's my guess, anyway. The entire goal here is to try to somehow reduce Seckendorff's influence.

Second, while La Chétardie's playing this role, his MO is to be to present himself as a military man to FW. This was interesting, because we saw that quote that Fritz didn't like Valori in the late 1730s because all he ever wanted to talk about was military stuff. Yet in the 1740s and 1750s, he's on good terms with the Divine Trio. And we guessed that the first impression he made on Fritz was because he needed to get on FW's good side. Now that I've seen a French envoy with explicit instructions to do exactly this, I strongly suspect this is exactly what was going on there! After all, reminder that La Chétardie ended up studying philosophy with Fritz and Suhm in the 1730s, and I think Fritz liked him, though I'm not sure if he was disillusioned later. I should check out Valori's instructions, but it is a bit of work converting them into English. I will not be surprised, though, if they say, "Talk all military, all the time!"

Third, check out the French court having NO clue about Fritz in 1732:

The health of the King of Prussia has for some time been extremely disturbed; it even raised fears of its imminent end. If this event occurs, there is no doubt that the young Prince, who is in very different feelings from his father, will follow other principles of government; but he would first surrender himself to the Court of England, and by a necessary backlash he would perhaps serve to a certain extent the views of the Court of Vienna, the more so since it is sufficiently convinced that the Emperor contributed much to save him in the last brilliant affair which made him relegate to Custrin. He has a tender respect and a determined confidence for the Queen his mother, who despite the divisions which have arisen has always maintained a direct trade with the Queen of England.

I can see why Fritz got into power and immediately went, "Nope, nope, and also nope" to the entire list of people who might be suspected of having influence over him.

Re: La Chétardie's instructions

[selenak]

First, La Chétardie is instructed to hide the fact that he's an envoy and to pretend to be a simple traveler.

Huh. You know what this reminds me of? The instructions to Morgenstern for his trip to England in the later 1730s, only for "envoy", substitute "spy", err, "member of the Prussian court".

BTW, given that an envoy must speak with the authority of his government sooner or later, just when was Le Chétardie supposed to drop this act?

Now that I've seen a French envoy with explicit instructions to do exactly this, I strongly suspect this is exactly what was going on there!

Saaaaame. And once more I wonder that August the Strong kept Suhm as envoy in Berlin when clearly, Suhm was no military man. (Mind you: perhaps because Manteuffel hadn't been in the military, either, yet had managed to switch form being liked by F1 as a man of letters to being liked by FW for (faking) being a bluff honest Pomeranian (even without being a soldier, and the idea was that Suhm was to adopt a similar persona.)

Third, check out the French court having NO clue about Fritz in 1732:

Quite. Though I'd say they had much more of a clue from 1739 onwards, because remember, one of Valori's earliest reports on Fritz says that actually, the Crown Prince is way more like Dad than anyone thinks and won't adopt the peacenik policies people expect him to. (Goes to show that being liked by Fritz did Le C. no good , and maybe being disliked at first meant that Valori could be a better observer.)

Re: La Chétardie's instructions

[mildred_of_midgard]

You know what this reminds me of? The instructions to Morgenstern for his trip to England in the later 1730s, only for "envoy", substitute "spy", err, "member of the Prussian court".

Exactly what it reminded me of! And as you may recall, what *that* reminded me of was Fritz sending Algarotti to Turin with instructions to spy and not let on that he was working for Fritz.

BTW, given that an envoy must speak with the authority of his government sooner or later, just when was Le Chétardie supposed to drop this act?

What the instructions say is,

As long as he can, he will play the role of a simple traveler to try, before having any character, to determine the taste of the King of Prussia.

"Before having any character" is using "character" in its technical diplomatic sense, i.e. presenting himself as officially representing the French court.

There's no hurry, since,

It is not that it should be a question of entering into any negotiations, but only of being within reach of diminishing the ascendancy which General Seckendorff has progressively acquired over the mind of the King of Prussia.

So I assume the ideal situation is that Chétardie first gets on FW's good side, earns some trust/influence, and *then* reveals who he is. Since that didn't happen, though, now I'm curious at what point he did reveal (or was exposed) who had sent him!

and the idea was that Suhm was to adopt a similar persona.

If so, that did not work! However, I'm reminded that felis found that Suhm joined the anti-sobriety society, so maybe you're right, maybe he was supposed to try.

However, remember that Seckendorff doesn't come along in an official capacity until 1726 (to lure FW away from the Alliance of Hanover and into the Alliance of Vienna), and so it's only 3 years later that the Saxons are sending other envoys (Polenz in Sep 1729, then Lynar in Jan 1730) to try to undermine Seckendorff's influence. It probably took a couple of years before everyone realized just how successful Seckendorff was being, and that they needed to counter him. So it may not be that Suhm's 10 years as envoy were ten years of outstanding failure.

And due to the FW-Suhm "I'll have you hanged!" kerfluffle in early 1728, as we discussed, it might have been a point of pride for August to send Suhm back and make him stay; otherwise it looks like his envoys are being dictated by FW. That could account for the year, year and a half before Polenz is sent.

Valory's instructions

[mildred_of_midgard]

Because I didn't get enough sleep last night to do German today, manual OCR cleanup is just the thing.

The intro to the instructions that La Chétardie¹ arrived in Prussia in mid 1732 and was accredited as minister at the beginning of 1733. I'm guessing that means that's when he let on to FW about his official envoy-ness. He was originally only supposed to stay in Prussia a few weeks, because Sauveterre had left, and the French wanted someone at the Prussian court. But eventually it turned into a real mission, and La Chétardie stayed until 1738.

(1. It is "La", btw, not "Le", since he's the Marquis de La Chétardie. Just like La Condamine. Who's in Rheinsberg if cahn needs a reminder.)

The intro, written by a turn of the twentieth-century Frenchman, also gives La Chétardie credit for FW's lukewarmness toward the Austrians in the mid to late 1730s, FW's giving asylum to Stanislas, his not sending troops to fight in Poland and his sending of only 10,000 troops to the Rhine. Now, I had understood that FW wanted to send a lot more troops to the Rhine but was refused by Charles VI, who didn't want the Prussians upstaging him (and conquering Berg along the way). So it seems like the editor may be giving La Chétardie a little too much credit. But I'm also not an expert on 1730s diplomacy, unlike a certain other decade I could mention. ;) The editor does at least acknowledge that Charles VI managed to alienate FW with his own choices (which I suspect was far more responsible for his change of heart than La Chétardie).

Anyway, by 1739, the French actually want to negotiate with the Prussians. So they send Valory, because he's considered superior in skill and experience to Super Casual Traveler La Chétardie. There's also a mention that Grumbkow has just died, and the French are trying to move into that vacuum.

The instructions don't explicitly say "talk all military, all the time", but, I'm getting that between the lines. First, the instructions say that Valory, being a brigadier in the French army, seems to have all the traits necessary to get on FW's good side. Second, they say that La Chétardie not only introduced Valory to FW, but gave him tips on dealing with FW, before leaving for St. Petersburg (where he later helped stage the Elizaveta coup in 1741). So I'm guessing Valory got the tip orally, if not in writing, that "all military, all the time," is the way to go.

More advice he got: Say nice things to Fritz, but not too nice, because being nice to Fritz is an FW landmine that we do not want to step on. Save the super nice things to Fritz for "special occasions" when it won't get back to FW. In other words, make nice with the rising sun very discreetly and privately where the setting sun can't see you.

Hot or not from our 1901 editor:

Valory was tall, with an above average plumpness, colored complexion, strong head, thin and slightly ironic gaze; his somewhat brusque manners at first softened during his diplomatic life, and his natural wit, his easy going, the anecdotes which he sowed profusely in the conversation, assured him a real superiority over the other ambassadors in Prussia. He was made, said Voltaire, when he was appointed to Berlin, "to dine with the King of Prussia and to sup with the Prince Royal". The unfavorable impression which he produced at first on "Fritz" was not long in dissipating when he became better known, and he subsequently became one of the favorite companions of the Great Frederick, whose campaigns he recounted with a lot of verve in his “Mémoires."

So yeah, putting everything together, Valory got told to not be too nice to Fritz publicly, and to disguise his learning and culture around FW, and as a result made a bad initial impression on Fritz, but eventually figured out how to run with the hares and hunt with the hounds.

1739: Not an easy year for diplomats to Prussia, in conclusion.

Re: Valory's instructions

[selenak]

The editor does at least acknowledge that Charles VI managed to alienate FW with his own choices (which I suspect was far more responsible for his change of heart than La Chétardie

*nods*

More advice he got: Say nice things to Fritz, but not too nice, because being nice to Fritz is an FW landmine that we do not want to step on.

Especially in 1739. Reminder to cahn: this is when FW falls back into bad habits and is so massively hostile towards Fritz that there are rumors about him wanting to change the order of succession reaching Bayreuth, which is why Wilhelmine writes to Fritz asking about this and Fritz writes back not to worry, he has AW solidly on his side. Another 1739 event is that FW brings Fritz to the Tobbaco Parliament, the Tobacco guys all rise for the next King, which is very much against FW's instructions as FW prided himself on being only adressed as "Colonel" in the Tabacgie and that they're all equals etc. while there, so he sends everyone a death glare and does not hold another Tabacco Parliament again.

Also possibly in 1739: that statement of FW's to Fritz that Valory quotes in his early 1750s pen portrait of Fritz. Reminder:

He's harsh and masterful towards his brothers. He holds them in an utter dependency which he himself never got used to when having it on his father who made everyone tremble. This father knew him very well and once told him: "When you are lord and master here, you will betray everyone, for you can't help yourself. You are false to the core of your being, and a betrayer. Be careful, Friedrich! Make that first betrayal as complete as possible, for you won't manage to fool them a second time."

Now in theory, FW could have said this at any point - he certainly never changed his opinion on Fritz being a liar from Fritz' later teenage years onwards - but between Valory arriving in 1739, and Valory in his 1750s description saying AW is one of his sources for the quote, putting that particular outburst in 1739 in a reasonable guess.

(Not that kid AW can't have witnessed FW ranting about Fritz at earlier times, but not while speaking to Fritz, with a certainty that Fritz will succeed him.)

And while FW's health is visibly declining, this has been true before, and he's recovered from confidently predicted impending death. So anyone banking on FW's near demise by openly courting Fritz could make a massive miscalculation.

Valory was tall, with an above average plumpness

Fritz certainly has a go at that in the Palladion, though he admits it didn't stop Valory from travelling with the army on campaign.

1739: Not an easy year for diplomats to Prussia, in conclusion.

No kidding.

Re: Valory's instructions

[mildred_of_midgard]

Especially in 1739.

Exactly why my closing remark was about 1739 not being an easy year!

(Pesne seems to have been not too worried up in Rheinsberg, though, painting that ceiling about the rising sun (I keep typing "rising son", lol).)

does not hold another Tabacco Parliament again.

I remembered the anecdote but had forgotten this detail. Man, no wonder the French are all "DON'T STEP ON THAT LANDMINE" in their diplomatic instructions!

(Not that kid AW can't have witnessed FW ranting about Fritz at earlier times, but not while speaking to Fritz, with a certainty that Fritz will succeed him.)

Not even earlier in the 1730s, when Fritz was visiting for the holidays every year? Though I agree, 1739, is the most *likely* year.

So anyone banking on FW's near demise by openly courting Fritz could make a massive miscalculation.

Yup, this.

Re: Valory's instructions

[cahn]

Wow, yeah, 1739 sounds tough :P