cahn

cahn

And, I mean, it doesn't have to be just 18th century characters, either!

(also, waiting for Yuletide!)

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From:

mildred_of_midgard

Re: who wants Fritz to do what? - what about SD?

I'm assuming that for the first part of this, she's ~~locked up where sun and moon don't shine~~ under house arrest, but you're right, if word gets out that Fritz is renouncing his claims, FW will let her write that letter.

Oh boy. At the very least, Fritz is going to get a “you are no longer a son of mine if you do this” letter he won’t be able to pretend FW has dictated. (Because it’s in perfect French.)

Alas. OTOH, this totally means that in 1740, I can see her going, "But you did that under duress! Come back and be king!"

shouldn’t it occur to someone that having a Prussian ex Crown Prince who might have resigned but can potentially reactivate that claim (high, Bourbon Philip of Spain) to threaten with could come in handy.

Yep, exactly! The French have also been harboring Stanislas (and recently marrying their king to his daughter), who doesn't have a throne any more, but they're about to try to put him back on it.

I think my main dilemma here is what happens initially: does Fritz stay in Alsace while he waits for Katte, or does he go to Paris, and if he stays or goes, how much of it is his idea vs. how much of it is external pressure, and who is pressuring him to do what?

Let's start with what we know. First, we know Chauvelin wants a war. So on the one hand, Chauvelin might want Fritz to come to Paris immediately and be used as a pawn. And we know Rottembourg is hand-in-glove with Chauvelin. But on the other hand, as you pointed out, Hoym refusing Fritz's attempt to escape might have been because Chauvelin had vetoed the idea. Wanting war is not the same thing as wanting a particular war. But on the third hand, discouraging Fritz from coming is not the same thing as throwing him away as a bargaining tool once you have him.

Second, we know Fleury doesn't want war. So does he want Fritz to keep a low incognito profile in Alsace, at least until Fleury can get some allies to support him? The diplomatic scene is changing quickly between when Fritz shows up (June 1730) and when Katte, Peter, and Wilhelmine show up (~March 1731?). In the first case, France and Britain are still kinda-sorta allies who are looking around for alternatives; in the second case, Britain has found that alternative (Austria), France is furious, and France is diplomatically isolated (since Spain at this point is allied with Britain and Austria).

Maybe the diplomatic isolation in March 1731 is why Fleury succeeds in averting a War of the Prussian Succession. Maybe he would rather keep Fritz in France than have him go to Uncle George and start a war that France could get sucked into, and possibly end up with a Prussian king that's grateful to Britain for putting him on the throne. And then he keeps sweetening the pot to entice Fritz to stay and be a quiet countryside scholar.

But alternatively, if I were in his shoes, or if I were another minister, I might want Fritz to go to Uncle George, because that would start a war that could break up the Britain-Austria-Prussia-Spain coalition. If France could stay neutral in that war, Fritz could be a useful pawn.

So I kind of like these as our three factions: go to war over Fritz, let the British go to war over Fritz (and take advantage of the fallout), or keep everything quiet. With Fleury winning as the "keep everything quiet" guy, because not only is he the most powerful man, but France is diplomatically isolated. (Being the most powerful doesn't mean he always wins, see 1733 and 1740. But 1731 is a good time for him to win, as indeed he did historically.)

That leaves Rottembourg. What does he do when he finds out a crown prince is hiding out at his estate? I was having him keep Fritz there in order to keep him from going to England, but for a number of reasons, he probably wants to take him to Paris: not get in trouble for harboring runaways, get credit for bringing the runaway (although that's a gamble, you can always end up as the scapegoat), support Chauvelin.

Maybe he's getting conflicting orders: official ones from Fleury to buy Fritz books, secretly hire the recently exiled Duhan, whatever it takes to keep Fritz happy and quiet and non-war-starting in Alsace, and secret ones from his encrypted correspondence with Chauvelin ordering him to bring Fritz to Paris so France can start a war.

But Fritz's plan was never to go to Paris, where the French will have the opportunity to keep him from going to England. So the more Rottembourg hints at Paris, the more Fritz digs in his heels and stubbornly stays in Alsace waiting for Katte to show up (quietly, so as not to provoke FW into making things worse for the hostages, SD and Wilhelmine). Katte, meanwhile, knows that Fritz never planned to go to Paris and was reluctant to even try Rottembourg's estate, and so when he's finally able to travel again, he assumes that enough time has passed that the reasonable place to meet up with Fritz is in England.

By the time Katte, Keith, and Wilhelmine all reunite with Fritz in spring of 1731,

1) France is diplomatically isolated and Fleury wins, because no one wants to go to war alone,

2) Fritz has gotten a taste of country scholar life and decided he likes it.

3) Most of his favorite people are with him, so what is the point of risking going back to a place where FW might get power over him again?

4) Fleury is doing everything in his power to sweeten the pot of "keep Fritz happy and quiet in France," like letting him become heir to a large fortune and keep his courtesy title and princely status.

5) Chauvelin is on board with this for now, because they can always use Fritz as a game piece to start a war later, as soon as they have allies again (and Chauvelin and Fleury are, as historically, working the Spanish connection as hard as they can in hopes of getting an alliance, which they do in 1733, just in time for the War of the Polish Succession).

And alas, I think this results in the letter from SD. But actually, maybe she doesn't write it, because she's holding out hope for Fritz to come back as soon as FW kicks it. The examples of Philip V, Victor Amadeus, and the Jacobites can give her hope. Meanwhile, both Fritz and Wilhelmine are totally getting letters that read DON'T MARRY ANYONE IN FRANCE.

Also, I realized Wilhelmine's priorities are going to be: "I don't care if you're king of Prussia or England or China or nowhere, but make sure that your courtesy title entitles us to sit in armchairs in the king and queen's presence!" :P

So from a French politician perspective, what does France get out of letting Fritz stay, if it’s not the potential weapon?

France definitely *wants* to put Fritz on the throne in return for him revoking Prussia's endorsement of the Pragmatic Sanction. How much effort they will put into this at what time is the question. I assume when FW dies, Belle-Isle will want to go to war to put Fritz on the throne. Maybe Prussia sides with Austria in the War of the Austrian Succession (l'autre moi-meme being only 14), in return for Jülich and Berg, against a France that wants Austrian territory and a Prussian king who's been living in France for the last ten years and owes his throne to them.

So I wouldn’t be surprised if Austria is quietly supportive of Fritz staying in France (quietly because they don’t want FW to withdraw his signature from the Pragmatic Sanction).

At some point, I think that events evolve such that Fritz is *willing* to give up his place in the succession, FW gets on board with this and making his favorite son his heir. At which point the Austrians can get involved openly, especially as the Emperor (iirc) has to approve any changes of inheritance. But first there has to be a lot of saber-rattling and perhaps actual skirmishing with Hanover and/or France by a raging FW.

Thank you, this was useful for thinking out loud (as it were) purposes! I still need to work out some details of what Rottembourg wants and does, but I have a clearer set of constraints now, and I'm liking the Fleury and Chauvelin developments.