cahn

Background: The kids' school has a topic for "Unit" every trimester that a lot of their work (reading, writing, some math) revolves around. These topics range from time/geographic periods ('Colonial America') to geography ('Asia') to science ('Space') to social science ('Business and Economics'). (I have some issues with this way of doing things, but that's a whole separate post.) Anyway, for Reasons, they have had to come up with a new topic this year, and E's 7/8 class is doing "World Fairs" as their new topic.

Me: I know E's teacher is all about World Fairs and I know she is great and will do a good job. But I feel like if we had a different teacher who wasn't so into World Fairs, they wouldn't do such a good job and another topic would be better.
Me: Like... the Enlightenment!
D: Heh, you could teach that! But you'd have to restrain yourself from making everything about Frederick the Great.
Me: But that's the thing! Everyone does relate to each other in this time period! Voltaire -- and his partner Émilie du Châtelet, who was heavily involved in the discourse of conservation of energy and momentum -- well, I've told you Voltaire had a thing with Fritz -- and then there's Empress Maria Theresa, who went to war with him a few times -- and Catherine the Great --
D, meditatively: You know --
Me: *am innocently not warned even though this is the same tone of voice that is often followed by, say, a bad pun*
D: -- it's impressive how everyone from this 'the Great' family is so famous!
Me: *splutters*
D, thoughtfully: But of course there's probably selection bias, as the ones who aren't famous don't get mentioned. You never see 'Bob the Great' in the history books...
Me: *splutters more*

Flat | Top-Level Comments Only

From:

mildred_of_midgard

Okay, in this post, we're going to talk about Russian foreign policy concerning Poland up to the beginning of Catherine's reign.

Here's the map again; pay particular attention to the Ottoman Empire borders again:

From the moment Peter the Great started having a foreign policy (ca. 1700), it involved keeping Poland weak. Poland was the once powerful Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth that had kicked Russian butt a hundred years earlier, and it was in Russia's best interests to make sure that didn't happen again.

Remember when Karl XII kicked August the Strong off the Polish throne, in favor of Stanislaw Leszczyński, and Peter used his troops to put August back? In order to keep the throne, August had to get the agreement of his Ottoman neighbors. One of their conditions was for him to kick the Russians out. Because the Ottomans don't want their neighbor Russia de facto ruling Poland. (Nobody wants a strong neighbor, that's going to be the leitmotif of this entire set of posts.)

But there was no way August could push out the Russian troops, like lol, that was never going to happen.

During his son August III's reign, he was pretty hands-off, and the country was ruled by two factions: the French-allied (-bribed) Potockis, and the Russian-allied (-bribed) Czartoryskis.

When Catherine comes to power, she puts her son's tutor, Nikita Panin, in charge of foreign policy. (Well, you know, "in charge", i.e., she still has the final word.)

Which is not what Panin wants, he wants a strong senate to prevent her from becoming an autocrat, but, well, tough luck, Panin.

As for foreign policy, his first plan for Russia is called the "Northern Accord": peace with Denmark, Prussia, Britain.

Historically, Austria was always Russia's "natural" ally, but France has always been the main enemy, and with the Diplomatic Revolution, Austria no longer looks like a natural ally. France has historically been encouraging (bribing) Poland, Sweden, and the Ottoman Empire to form their "barrière de l'est" (barrier of the east) against Russia; that's why Louis XV and the Comte de Broglie are always *so* interested in what's going on in Poland. (The fact that Poland's first king was a Frenchman, future Henri III, doesn't hurt either).

So if not Austria, then Russia needs new allies. The first goal is to make sure Poland stays weak, though the Russian ministers are divided over whether that means "weak as possible" or "strong enough to be useful, still too weak to be a threat").

When Catherine takes power, August III's death is impending. She knows she wants to put her ex-boyfriend (or failing that, a different Pole) on the throne, but she needs an ally. France isn't going to go for this. Austria isn't going to go for this. Britain might, but they've been at war with France for so long that allying with France's ally Russia is not a thing they're ready to do until Europe is at peace.

That leaves Fritz. He's been courting Catherine as an ally, because of the 5 main European superpowers, Austria's obviously not an option, France is allied with Russia and showing its weaknesses, he's pissed off at Britain over the subsidy cancellation, and Russia has massively shown its strength in the war. Better to have Russia as an ally than an enemy.

Catherine starts talking alliances with Fritz in 1763. August III will die in a few months. Nobody knew that at the time, of course, but they did still have a feeling the clock was ticking.

But Catherine doesn't need Fritz as badly as he needs her. Unlike Panin, she doesn't want a "system" of alliances, where there's one consistent foreign policy, like "anti-Bourbon" or "anti-Habsburg." This is a very popular way of managing foreign policy in 18th century Europe, but Catherine just wants to play it by ear and be opportunistic in her alliances.

So despite Panin's commitment to "anti-Bourbon" policy, Catherine's holding out on actually signing a treaty with Fritz. She's trying to get the British interested in Russia, so that she doesn't need Fritz. So Fritz follows an approach often used on the dating scene, and he starts acting interested in someone else in front of her. Namely, he starts flirting with the Ottomans. Now, during the war, you may remembered he had tried unsuccessfully to get them as allies. But now that it's November 1763, the war is over, and August III is dead, Fritz is hosting the Turkish delegation in Berlin, spending a lot of money to impress them, and watching the Russians out of one corner of his eye.

Russians: Fritz is spending money??! He must be serious! We must beat the Ottomans to the punch.

Catherine: *signs*

So it is that in March 1764, Russia and Prussia make an 8 year pact of mutual defense. The secret articles concerning Poland are:
* Maintain peace in Poland.
* Get a native Pole elected king.
* Defend Poland militarily.
* Don't change the constitution.
* Sponsor toleration for Orthodox and Protestants.

As a result, Panin is able to start developing his "Northern System". His goals are a Russian hegemony, consisting of:
* Peace in the north.
* Alliance with Prussia.
* Extend the peace to include Denmark and Britain.
* Keep Sweden, Poland, and Saxony inactive.
* Bribe pro-Russian factions in Poland and Sweden to vote according to Russian wishes and not French wishes.
* Agree to trade Holstein territory and Schleswig claims in return for Oldenburg+Delmenhorst, so as to get peace with Denmark. (This is the thing Prussian!Pete wanted to drag Russia into war with Denmark over.)

For the last point, Catherine thinks it's good for Paul not to have an independent power base when he comes of age, so she's on board. In 1765, Russia and Denmark sign a defensive alliance. In 1767, they sign the agreement that the territorial exchange is going to happen, but not until Catherine's son Paul, who actually owns the territory, reaches his majority and can consent on his own behalf, by which we mean do what his mother tells him.

As a reminder, 1764-1768 is when Bernstorff is in power, Frederik V dies in 1766, and Moltke is in and out of power. Struensee won't come to power until 1770.

But Britain is a much harder nut to crack. There's a sticking point in the negotiations, namely that Russia is trying to establish peace in the north largely so they can focus on territorial gains in the south (see the map), and so they want allies in case of war with the Ottomans. So an absolute must-have for them is that their ally must consider an Ottoman attack on Russia as an act of war that invokes the treaty. Prussia and Denmark have already agreed to this, in 1764 and 1765 respectively, the Brits are remarkably uninspired to get involved in a ~~land war in Asia~~ war with the Turks. Specifically, this is because the Brits have a good navy and a world-wide trading empire, and it's not in their best interests to go to war against a power they trade a lot with.

So the most Britain and Russia manage in the 1760s is that their respective diplomats in Stockholm cooperate with bribery and politicking so that neither of the Swedish political parties, the Hats or the Caps, can gain enough of an edge over the other that the Swedes can make any progress or pursue any policy. Remember, one of the goals of Panin's Northern Accord is to make Sweden into an "inactive" power, one that can't get anything done.

The British do manage to get the Swedes into an alliance in 1766, contributing to an anti-France bloc in the North.

Now, every time anyone tries to negotiate with Russia, they try to bring Fritz into it, but Fritz's goals are:

1. Do not get sucked into any alliances with anyone but Russia. They might lead to commitments that would drag him into another war he can't afford.

2. Do not let Russia ally with anyone other than him, that will give him less leverage over Russia.

But between Sweden, Denmark, Prussia, and reasonably good terms (if friction) with Britain, Russia has gotten the hegemony in the north they want.

But things are going to take a turn for the worse, because of the way events play out in Poland.

From:

luzula

So Fritz follows an approach often used on the dating scene, and he starts acting interested in someone else in front of her. Namely, he starts flirting with the Ottomans.
Hee. I do hope they're not going to import their foreign policy approaches to dating, though...

From:

cahn

So Fritz follows an approach often used on the dating scene, and he starts acting interested in someone else in front of her. Namely, he starts flirting with the Ottomans. Now, during the war, you may remembered he had tried unsuccessfully to get them as allies. But now that it's November 1763, the war is over, and August III is dead, Fritz is hosting the Turkish delegation in Berlin, spending a lot of money to impress them, and watching the Russians out of one corner of his eye.

Russians: Fritz is spending money??! He must be serious! We must beat the Ottomans to the punch.

Catherine: *signs*

Me: Mildred has realized I am in this for the gossipy sensationalism, so she is couching the diplomatic/foreign-policy stories in terms of gossipy sensationalism so I will be more interested in it!
Me: ...sounds legit.

1. Do not get sucked into any alliances with anyone but Russia. They might lead to commitments that would drag him into another war he can't afford.

2. Do not let Russia ally with anyone other than him, that will give him less leverage over Russia.

...well, I guess that makes sense!

From:

mildred_of_midgard

Me: Mildred has realized I am in this for the gossipy sensationalism, so she is couching the diplomatic/foreign-policy stories in terms of gossipy sensationalism so I will be more interested in it!
Me: ...sounds legit.

Heee! I try. Sorry for the minimal dialogue in this one; I didn't have the energy to put as much effort into every single installment as I did into the first one.