18th-Century Characters, Including Frederick the Great, Discussion Post 38

[cahn]

Gonna go ahead and make this post even though Yuletide is coming...

But in the meantime, there has been some fic in the fandom posted!

Holding His Space (2503 words) by felisnocturna
Chapters: 1/1
Fandom: 18th Century CE RPF, 18th Century CE Frederician RPF
Rating: Teen And Up Audiences
Warnings: Creator Chose Not To Use Archive Warnings
Relationships: Michael Gabriel Fredersdorf/Friedrich II von Preußen | Frederick the Great
Characters: Michael Gabriel Fredersdorf, Friedrich II von Preußen | Frederick the Great
Additional Tags: Protectiveness, Domestic, Character Study
Summary:

Five times Fredersdorf has to stay behind - and one time Friedrich doesn't leave.

Using People (3392 words) by prinzsorgenfrei
Chapters: 1/1
Fandom: 18th Century CE RPF
Rating: General Audiences
Warnings: No Archive Warnings Apply
Relationships: Friedrich II von Preußen | Frederick the Great/Hans Hermann von Katte
Characters: Friedrich II von Preußen | Frederick the Great, Hans Hermann von Katte
Additional Tags: Fluff, Idiots in Love, reading plays aloud while gazing into each others eyes
Summary:

Friedrich had started to talk to him because he had thought of him as a bit of a ditz.
And now here he was. Here he was months later, bundled up in this very same man’s blankets with a cup of hot coffee in front of him, its scent mixing with that of Katte’s French perfume.
_
Fluffy One Shot about one traitorous Crown Prince and the sycophant he accidentally fell for.

Comments

France and the War of the Austrian Succession

[mildred_of_midgard]

(Because everyone else would have pounced anyway.) Would he have

a) thought he'd better prevent the Saxons, French, Bavarians etc.

Next question: Does France pounce?

At the start of 1741, Cardinal Fleury is pro-peace and pro-keeping the Pragmatic Sanction, as is Louis. The head of the hawk faction is the Comte de Belle-Isle (grandson of Foucquet, who showed up in the Iron Mask saga). Public opinion is with Belle-Isle.

When MT's dad Charles VI died, Fleury initially refused to support the Bavarian claimant. By early 1741, he had been pushed as far as supporting the Wittelsbach Charles Albert (future Charles VII), but didn't want any partition of the Habsburg domains. He sent Belle-Isle off as envoy to the Imperial Diet with this in mind, but Belle-Isle was of the opinion that the Bavarian guy could only realistically be an emperor if he got his hands on the Habsburg domains.

To quote Eveline Cruickshanks, a scholar who wrote about internal French politics and foreign policy during this period and whose work gets cited a lot, "Circumstances also turned in the favour of Belle-Isle and against the old chief minister. Frederick II's invasion of Silesia in December 1740 modified the international situation. The election of a non-Hapsburg emperor naturally necessitated the cooperation of Prussia, the most powerful German state. In January 1741 negotiations for an alliance were begun." [Emphasis mine.]

Not until June was a Franco-Prussian treaty negotiated, alloting Silesia to Prussia, Moravia to Saxony, and Bohemia, Upper Austria, Tyrol and Swabia to Bavaria. And yet France was still refusing military preparations. Belle-Isle and Fritz were yelling, "Come ON already!" but Fleury was ignoring them.

Only in July 1741 did things turn around. Belle-Isle arrived in Versailles, riding high on successful negotiations with Prussia and the Diet, and convinced Louis that it was time for war.

Would Belle-Isle have been able to do this without the successful Fritz negotiations? Maaybe. Public opinion in France was behind the war (which is a lot of what Belle-Isle convinced Louis of). But can this coalition get a Wittelsbach emperor elected without Fritz?

Maybe. Say I'm wrong about Saxony, maybe a France - Bavaria - Spain coalition convinces them. Say Cruickshanks is wrong and Fritz may have made the Wittelsbach election decisive, but Charles Albert could still have pulled it off without Prussia. I assume, though, that Fritz's vote for FS is the only thing MT would have granted Silesia in return for. Maybe Saxony votes for the Wittelsbach candidate even without needing to go to war, idk.

Maybe France goes to war; after all, they have the 1733 Family Pact with Spain (negotiated by our friend Rottembourg), and Spain I'm certain goes to war with Austria.

But the thing is, I'm not 100% sure France goes to war. If they do, it might take them longer to get around to committing to it.

If France doesn't go to war, Saxony won't. Would Bavaria? I think they'd hold out the longest on the diplomatic front trying to make it happen, but it's not clear to me they'd risk outright war isolated in central Europe.

If France, Saxony, and Bavaria don't go to war, what does Fritz do if (a) is no longer an option? I'm really torn between (c) and (b). (c) is what he ultimately tried for in 1742 and 1745, but only after years of fighting, and I think it would have been hard for him to stop his forward momentum if Silesia came that easily in 1741. (b) is easy if there's a war, but if there's no war, what excuse does he have? He might go for Jülich and Berg, he was apparently trying for them when Charles VI died. But I'm not sure if he goes for Bohemia, Moravia, or Saxony without a war.

In conclusion, I'm really undecided about whether France goes to war without Prussia, and about what Fritz does if there is no war. If France does go to war alongside Bavaria and Spain, and I think there's a good chance they do, then I think Fritz tries for a second land grab but bows out early if he can't keep it easily, and certainly doesn't spend the whole war defending MT.

Re: France and the War of the Austrian Succession

[selenak]

Now I‘m envisioning Fritz frustrated that it‘s so easy and he doesn‘t get any glory in battle if MT immediately folds. :)

Hm, do you think there is any chance he might decide to preemptively „protect“ MT by invading Saxony, you know, just in case because Brühl is an evil man and will try something, and btw, of course he‘ll keep Saxony once he has it?

Re: France and the War of the Austrian Succession

[mildred_of_midgard]

Hm, do you think there is any chance he might decide to preemptively „protect“ MT by invading Saxony, you know, just in case because Brühl is an evil man and will try something, and btw, of course he‘ll keep Saxony once he has it?

Oh, yes, absolutely. That's what I had in mind in my first reply when I said he might invade a neutral Saxony. See, in real life, in the 1750s, Saxony was super interested in partitioning Prussia, and was engaged in diplomatic activity toward this end. Fritz knew that. The only reason what he did was a war crime (I mean, the act of invading, not what he did when he got there) was that Saxony hadn't actually signed a treaty in time, because they were too scared. They were officially neutral when he invaded, though they were trying to get in on the anti-Fritz coalition on terms that would make the risk acceptable to them. So Fritz manufactured evidence that they had actually agreed to partition Prussia, produced a lot of PR defending his actions, and invaded Saxony. Saxony didn't start defending themselves effectively on the PR front until a hundred years later, in the 1860s-1870s (when Prussia was again doing related things the Saxons didn't like).

In this AU? Saxony is absolutely interested in partitioning Habsburg territory, and they're sounding out MT's enemies for an alliance. In my theory, they're too scared to actually join in time, which is why I think they remain officially neutral. But knowing that Saxony is sounding out allies for partitioning Habsburg territories, Fritz could absolutely use that as a pretense to invade Saxony as part of his protection racket. And the reason I keep leaning toward him doing that is that it would *both* be easier to justify than invading more MT territory, and more valuable to Prussia (closer to home, more economically valuable, longstanding rival of Prussia that he had a definite interest in keeping down--his political correspondence reflects that even before the first Silesian invasion).

Now, since he hadn't experienced 1744 yet, he doesn't yet know that Bohemia is so difficult to hold, so he might:

1. Seize Silesia, offer his "protection" to MT.
2. Occupy Saxony on the grounds that they're a threat to MT. Use them to fund the war.
3. Invade Bohemia because this has all been too easy so far. :D
4. Start running into trouble.

Given that I agree 100% with what you've said about MT losing support the moment she starts handing over territory, the trouble Fritz runs into might be a combination of Bavarian + French trouble and trouble from the locals being Catholic and not too impressed with the defender of the Protestant faith, rather than Austrian trouble, but at this point, I lose my ability to make meaningful predictions: too many forks in the path.

This is fun, I feel like Heinrich and AW roleplaying. :D