ETA: Building on my work last time, I calculated a value for the hypothetical offspring of Charles II and his first wife, based purely on the data set in the genealogy pasted in my original post. The problem is that the smaller your data set, the more likely you are to miss evidence of inbreeding. Since I can't go 16 generations back with 3,000 individuals, my numbers are too low.
However, I used my method on Charles II as a control, because we know a more accurate value for him based on a larger data set, and this is what I came up with:
0.18 for Charles, compared to a more accurate value of 0.254.
0.045 for hypothetical offspring.
So the more accurate value is surely higher, but not likely to be higher than 0.254, not if my method gets me a higher value for Mr. "My parents were uncle and niece and also first cousins once removed" Charles than for his "My parents were first cousins once removed and my mother wasn't all that inbred" offspring.
Caveat that when I learned this algorithm back when I was studying genetics, I didn't have to work it out on anything nearly as complicated as the Habsburgs, so I may be missing something and am open to corrections.
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Re: Gossipy Sensationalist annotations
Date: 2021-05-19 07:08 pm (UTC)However, I used my method on Charles II as a control, because we know a more accurate value for him based on a larger data set, and this is what I came up with:
0.18 for Charles, compared to a more accurate value of 0.254.
0.045 for hypothetical offspring.
So the more accurate value is surely higher, but not likely to be higher than 0.254, not if my method gets me a higher value for Mr. "My parents were uncle and niece and also first cousins once removed" Charles than for his "My parents were first cousins once removed and my mother wasn't all that inbred" offspring.
Caveat that when I learned this algorithm back when I was studying genetics, I didn't have to work it out on anything nearly as complicated as the Habsburgs, so I may be missing something and am open to corrections.