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Historical Characters, Including Frederick the Great, Discussion Post 47
We haven't had a new post since before December 25, so obligatory Yuletide link to this hilarious story of Frederick the Great babysitting his bratty little brother, with bonus Fritz/Fredersdorf!
1764-1772 Foreign policy: Sweden: Lead-up to the coup (1768-1772)
This leads to an election in 1769 in which the Caps fall and the Hats rise again, with the help of French money. France continues to want Sweden to be a strong ally and catspaw in that part of Europe, unlike Russia, which wants anarchy to keep their neighbor Sweden weak. Though the Russians don't manage to keep the Caps in power, they do at least keep any constitutional change from happening that might strengthen the monarch.
At this point, April 1769, both Russia and Denmark, which are allied to Sweden, want Fritz to help out with guaranteeing the constitution that instituted the Age of Liberty in 1720. This basically means that if the constitution gets changed in any way, Fritz will help invade and put things back the way they were.
Fritz says no. He's also refusing to get dragged into a wider system of alliances consisting of Prussia + Russia + Other Power, where Other Power could be Denmark or Britain or whoever. His primary goal is to keep his involvement in potential wars limited, and secondarily to keep Russia to himself. All these politics happening are partly why he meets with Joseph at Neisse, to agree to keep Germany at peace if war breaks out somewhere else.
It's also to try to make Catherine agree to renew her treaty with him, by presenting Prussia/Austria as an alternative. The Russo-Prussian treaty isn't due to expire for another three years, in 1772, but Fritz, who's avoiding all other alliances, wants to renew it now. Preferably while Russia is in a slightly weakened position because they're still at war with Turkey and dealing with the guerrilla warfare chaos that is the Confederation of Bar/civil war in Poland.
Part of the reason Catherine is willing to consider this treaty is that the Brits still won't give her one. Britain and Russia have been trying to negotiate a treaty since 1766, but Catherine won't give up "If Turkey attacks Russia, that invokes our treaty" as a term, and Britain won't accept that. By 1769, she's already at war with Turkey, and Sweden is making her nervous, so she offers to drop that term, but she wants subsidies for her war against Turkey. Britain, as Fritz well knows, is unwilling to finance other powers' wars. During peacetime, Parliament will only agree to pay bribes.
So Catherine can't get a treaty with Britain, Sweden is making her nervous; Denmark's not a major power (we'll get to them in a future installment); Austria is trying to 1) invade Poland, 2) ally with Turkey; Fritz is willing to ally with Austria. So she gives in to Fritz's wish to renew the treaty now.
As a result, Fritz agrees that major changes to the Swedish constitution will require him to invade, but he defines which ones. Any little change that Russia doesn't like isn't necessarily a problem for him. So the final provisions of the Russian-Prussian treaty as signed in October 1769 include:
* A list of which specific changes which would be considered as an overthrow of the fundamental laws of Sweden and would require Fritz's involvement.
* A Swedish attack on Russia, or the restoration of absolutism in Sweden requires Fritz to get involved.
* Frederick promises that if it comes to either of those situations, his job will be to create a diversion in Swedish Pomerania , where he can hope to acquire some territory.
So you can imagine that Mr. "My country is barely holding itself together financially and I still have memories of the Seven Years' War" is going to be extra unhappy at the restoration of absolutism in Sweden.
Meanwhile–I said this gets complicated!–Denmark is *also* getting nervous at events in Sweden. Bernstorff very much wants a weak neighbor–remember when Karl XII invaded and kicked Danish butt in a few weeks in 1700? That was just the latest in a centuries-long rivalry between the two powers. It therefore logically follows that Bernstorff's priority in Sweden is keeping the 1720 constitution. And the Caps, no longer in power, can't defend it.
So Bernstorff partially mobilizes the Danish fleet. France, allied to the pro-French Hats in Sweden, threatens war. The Brits promise to help against the French.
All this saber-rattling results in a Danish-British treaty in December 1769 with these terms:
* Mutual defense.
* Maintenance of the 1720 constitution, by force if necessary.
* Territorial gains at Sweden's expense if necessary.
Bernstorff, of course, wants the 1720 constitution kept pristine at all costs; the Brits can afford to be more flexible on that point. What they want is a northern league between them, Russia, Prussia, and Denmark, which as you may recall Catherine's foreign minister Panin also wants, but Fritz emphatically does not.
Also, Russia and Denmark still can't fully agree on Holstein. Yes, they signed a provisional agreement in 1767 agreeing to an exchange, but it's not to take effect until Catherine's son Paul reaches his majority in 1773, so there's still plenty of room for disagreement.
So: things are complicated. Fortunately, the Danish saber-rattling ends with a whimper, not a bang. Bernstorff finally manages to conclude a treaty with Russia in December 1769, in which they agree (secretly) that any change to the 1720 constitution in Sweden would invoke the alliance, they would invade Sweden together, and Denmark could acquire territory along the Norwegian border while Russia could acquire territory in Finland.
But the extraordinary diet in Sweden was dispersed in early 1770, tensions abated, and by the autumn of 1770, things were calm enough for Gustav to set off on his Grand Tour.
But now Struensee is in power, and he dismisses Bernstorff in September 1770. Bernstorff had been inclined to be pro-Russian in order to work out a deal over Holstein; Struensee is inclined to be much less pro-Russian. (I told you 1768-1772 was complicated!)
Meanwhile, a further major development happens when Gustav arrives in Paris in February 1771, and a week later, his father, Adolf Frederik, dies, making Gustav king. Gustav is able to negotiate to get the French to send subsidies to Sweden again.
And now we've laid the groundwork for the coup!
Re: 1764-1772 Foreign policy: Sweden: Lead-up to the coup (1768-1772)
Re: 1764-1772 Foreign policy: Sweden: Lead-up to the coup (1768-1772)
It borders Habsburg territory, and while under other circumstances, Fritz would love to have his ally bordering his enemy, at this point, Catherine is such an exceedingly strong ally that he's going, "Whoa, whoa, tone it down, you're going to have to give back some of those Balkan conquests to the Turks." It's all about balance of power.
In fact, in between negotiations, this had happened: Catherine to Fritz: Mind if I keep your brother as my personal satrap and make him King of Wallachia? Fritz: YES. NO HEINRICH FOR YOU.
And now we also know it was NO WALLACHIA FOR YOU, EITHER.
Re: 1764-1772 Foreign policy: Sweden: Lead-up to the coup (1768-1772)
And now we also know it was NO WALLACHIA FOR YOU, EITHER.
I laughed at this! (Again.)
Re: 1764-1772 Foreign policy: Sweden: Lead-up to the coup (1768-1772)
Ha ha, I love that. Going on strike, not just for factory workers!
Indeed very complicated, but nice work setting up a cliffhanger for the next post... *goes on to that one*
Re: 1764-1772 Foreign policy: Sweden: Lead-up to the coup (1768-1772)
Ha, yes, wow!