okay, this is AWESOME. I mean, fine, you make it clear there are other considerations. But it's also a super cute story :P Well, besides the part where she dies super early :(
It is an absurdly romantic tale, and I like it a lot. Also, given the alternative princes available at the time, it must be said Mary got herself the best of the lot (not just theoretical position wise). Here's a darkly humorous fun bit about some of the alternatives.
In England, ruling: Edward IV., brother to Mary's stepmother Margaret. Has two other brothers: the youngest, Richard, future Richard III, who, no matter whether you're a traditionalist (= he killed the princes in the Tower) or a Ricardian (did not!), had been and would be completely loyal to Big Brother throughout Edward's entire life, which included going into exile with him when Edward temporarily lost the crown courtesy of their cousin Richard Neville aka "The Kingmaker", with whom Edward had fallen out, and their middle brother George of Clarence. That would be the other brother. Clarence is famous in history for two things: constantly changing sides in the wars of the Roses, and eventually ending up dead by order of brother Edward, supposedly drowned in wine, which may or may not be a legend, but he did end up dead on his brother's command, and not in secret but after a public accusation and trial.
Now, back when Edward and Richard had to go into exile, they spend those two years with sister Margaret in Burgundy. George, Margaret and Richard were the youngest York siblings and had been raised together. So let's assume Margaret, who hadn't seen George since she got married and thus heard of the constant betrayals only via mail, had a soft spot for him, for:
Margaret: Dear Edward and Richard (in a historical novel she'd write Ned and Dickon), I think I have the solution to the problem with George. Clearly, he won't scheme and change sides anymore if he has a realm of his own! My stepdaughter Mary urgently needs a husband, and I was thinking...
Edward: Yeah, no. Handing over one of the richest provinces on the continent to the brother who still thinks he'd make a better King than me? NO WAY.
Richard: Hate to say this, Meg, but he's right
Edward: However, how about my brother-in-law, Anthony Woodville?
Margaret: ....SERIOUSLY?
(This would have been a serious mesalliance, because Edward's wife, Elizabeth Woodville, had been the daughter of a simple knight, his marriage with her had been one of the primary reasons for his fallout with cousin Neville the Kingmaker, and because Edward kept favoring the Woodvilles (possibly to build them up as an alternate power base to the Nevilles, in a divide and rule sense), they were cordially despised by much of the English nobility.)
Margaret:...I think Mary is right: she should go for the young Habsburg.
Juana: how much or little insane she was is still debated. The traditional story is that she was jealous of every woman Philip as much as looked at so he had to restrain her even in his life time, and then when he died she went completely mad. The problem is that this explanation came from three men who really profited from Juana being declared mad and unable to rule: her husband, her father and her son. (Her father because Spain had only gotten united through the marriage of Ferdinand and Isabella, and the ensuing conquest of Granada, the last Muslim kingdom of Spain. However, Ferdinand did not rule Castile, only his own realm of Aragon, while Isabella lived. And Castile then went to Isabel's children, not to Ferdinand as her husband, which meant Juana.)
Now, there are certainly independent testimonies as to Juana's temper. She and Philip le Bel fell for each other at sight and were so eager to have sex that Philip ordered his Chaplain to marry them immediately instead of waiting for the big ceremony. She was openly jealous of most women around him (with or wihout reason, who can say). But this behavior isn't classified as mad by a great many other people. When Philip and Juana spent three months in England, she certainly didn't apppear to be mad to the people she interacted with there, which included Henry VII, who years later, after the death of his wife Elizabeth of York, indeed proposed to marry her. And when asked whether she wasn't supposed to be mad said no, he saw no sign of madness. Unfortunately, by then Ferdinand was in charge of Juana, see above, and had a vested interest in having her considered as mad. Not to mention that Ferdinand already regreted having married his youngest daughter, Katherine of Aragon, to Henry's son Arthur, only for Arthur to die and Henry keeping Katherine's dowry anyway but refusing to send her back. (This was before future Henry VIII. would marry his sister-in-law.) There's no way he would have handed over Juana and Castile to Henry VII. Still, it's an AU to think about, especially if Henry VII had managed to sire another son before his own death. What Henry VIII. would have done with a baby half brother with a claim to Castile is anyone's guess, of course.
Anyway, back to the question of Juana's sanity: the biggest proof held up for her being insane is that after Philip le Bel's death, she supposedly refused to let him be buried and travelled with his coffin everywhere. Even this is contested, though, with people pointing out that since Philip had wanted to be buried in Granada, and Ferdinand for eons refused to let him be buried there (they had waged war against each other for who got to rule Castile in Juana's name before Philip's death), Juana had no choice but to keep the coffin with her until her father gave in. (One more thing: Ferdinand at this point still hoped to have a son from his second wife, so neither Castile nor Aragon would fall to the Habsburgs. This eventually did not happen, as the only male baby died the day it was born. But that was what he was aiming for at this point.)
Certainly in her later years, after decades of isolated imprisonment and separation from her children (except for the youngest one, Catherine, who had been born after Philip's death and who was allowed to grow up with her mother before getting married), Juana seems to have been severely depressed. But when the representatives of the Castilian diet met her after her father's death, she came across as compos mentis and reasonable to them, and they would have been willing to support her against her son, but Juana wasn't willing to go to war against her son, so that was that. He did at least visit her a lot in the ensuing decades, but her de facto imprisonment and being declared insane never ended. (When the Castilian diet representatives did swear the loyalty oath to Charles eventually, they did so only under the condition that he promised that if Juana ever regained her sanity, he would step back from power and be her subordinate in everything. You don't have to be a cynic to conclude what the chances were of that ever happening.)
Only in the 19th century, historians started to doubt whether she'd been clinically insane, and the first "Juana wasn't insane, she was the victim of three men wanting her heritage" historian, one Gustav Bergenroth, published. The debate has been ongoing ever since.
Re: War of the Spanish Succession: Netherlands: Gossipy Addenda
It is an absurdly romantic tale, and I like it a lot. Also, given the alternative princes available at the time, it must be said Mary got herself the best of the lot (not just theoretical position wise). Here's a darkly humorous fun bit about some of the alternatives.
In England, ruling: Edward IV., brother to Mary's stepmother Margaret. Has two other brothers: the youngest, Richard, future Richard III, who, no matter whether you're a traditionalist (= he killed the princes in the Tower) or a Ricardian (did not!), had been and would be completely loyal to Big Brother throughout Edward's entire life, which included going into exile with him when Edward temporarily lost the crown courtesy of their cousin Richard Neville aka "The Kingmaker", with whom Edward had fallen out, and their middle brother George of Clarence. That would be the other brother. Clarence is famous in history for two things: constantly changing sides in the wars of the Roses, and eventually ending up dead by order of brother Edward, supposedly drowned in wine, which may or may not be a legend, but he did end up dead on his brother's command, and not in secret but after a public accusation and trial.
Now, back when Edward and Richard had to go into exile, they spend those two years with sister Margaret in Burgundy. George, Margaret and Richard were the youngest York siblings and had been raised together. So let's assume Margaret, who hadn't seen George since she got married and thus heard of the constant betrayals only via mail, had a soft spot for him, for:
Margaret: Dear Edward and Richard (in a historical novel she'd write Ned and Dickon), I think I have the solution to the problem with George. Clearly, he won't scheme and change sides anymore if he has a realm of his own! My stepdaughter Mary urgently needs a husband, and I was thinking...
Edward: Yeah, no. Handing over one of the richest provinces on the continent to the brother who still thinks he'd make a better King than me? NO WAY.
Richard: Hate to say this, Meg, but he's right
Edward: However, how about my brother-in-law, Anthony Woodville?
Margaret: ....SERIOUSLY?
(This would have been a serious mesalliance, because Edward's wife, Elizabeth Woodville, had been the daughter of a simple knight, his marriage with her had been one of the primary reasons for his fallout with cousin Neville the Kingmaker, and because Edward kept favoring the Woodvilles (possibly to build them up as an alternate power base to the Nevilles, in a divide and rule sense), they were cordially despised by much of the English nobility.)
Margaret:...I think Mary is right: she should go for the young Habsburg.
Juana: how much or little insane she was is still debated. The traditional story is that she was jealous of every woman Philip as much as looked at so he had to restrain her even in his life time, and then when he died she went completely mad. The problem is that this explanation came from three men who really profited from Juana being declared mad and unable to rule: her husband, her father and her son. (Her father because Spain had only gotten united through the marriage of Ferdinand and Isabella, and the ensuing conquest of Granada, the last Muslim kingdom of Spain. However, Ferdinand did not rule Castile, only his own realm of Aragon, while Isabella lived. And Castile then went to Isabel's children, not to Ferdinand as her husband, which meant Juana.)
Now, there are certainly independent testimonies as to Juana's temper. She and Philip le Bel fell for each other at sight and were so eager to have sex that Philip ordered his Chaplain to marry them immediately instead of waiting for the big ceremony. She was openly jealous of most women around him (with or wihout reason, who can say). But this behavior isn't classified as mad by a great many other people. When Philip and Juana spent three months in England, she certainly didn't apppear to be mad to the people she interacted with there, which included Henry VII, who years later, after the death of his wife Elizabeth of York, indeed proposed to marry her. And when asked whether she wasn't supposed to be mad said no, he saw no sign of madness. Unfortunately, by then Ferdinand was in charge of Juana, see above, and had a vested interest in having her considered as mad. Not to mention that Ferdinand already regreted having married his youngest daughter, Katherine of Aragon, to Henry's son Arthur, only for Arthur to die and Henry keeping Katherine's dowry anyway but refusing to send her back. (This was before future Henry VIII. would marry his sister-in-law.) There's no way he would have handed over Juana and Castile to Henry VII. Still, it's an AU to think about, especially if Henry VII had managed to sire another son before his own death. What Henry VIII. would have done with a baby half brother with a claim to Castile is anyone's guess, of course.
Anyway, back to the question of Juana's sanity: the biggest proof held up for her being insane is that after Philip le Bel's death, she supposedly refused to let him be buried and travelled with his coffin everywhere. Even this is contested, though, with people pointing out that since Philip had wanted to be buried in Granada, and Ferdinand for eons refused to let him be buried there (they had waged war against each other for who got to rule Castile in Juana's name before Philip's death), Juana had no choice but to keep the coffin with her until her father gave in. (One more thing: Ferdinand at this point still hoped to have a son from his second wife, so neither Castile nor Aragon would fall to the Habsburgs. This eventually did not happen, as the only male baby died the day it was born. But that was what he was aiming for at this point.)
Certainly in her later years, after decades of isolated imprisonment and separation from her children (except for the youngest one, Catherine, who had been born after Philip's death and who was allowed to grow up with her mother before getting married), Juana seems to have been severely depressed. But when the representatives of the Castilian diet met her after her father's death, she came across as compos mentis and reasonable to them, and they would have been willing to support her against her son, but Juana wasn't willing to go to war against her son, so that was that. He did at least visit her a lot in the ensuing decades, but her de facto imprisonment and being declared insane never ended. (When the Castilian diet representatives did swear the loyalty oath to Charles eventually, they did so only under the condition that he promised that if Juana ever regained her sanity, he would step back from power and be her subordinate in everything. You don't have to be a cynic to conclude what the chances were of that ever happening.)
Only in the 19th century, historians started to doubt whether she'd been clinically insane, and the first "Juana wasn't insane, she was the victim of three men wanting her heritage" historian, one Gustav Bergenroth, published. The debate has been ongoing ever since.